Southern Watch

Taiwan's NSC chief Joseph Wu reported more than 100 PLA Navy and China Coast Guard vessels in the Western Pacific on 3 Nov. On 2 Nov there were 49 air sorties, the highest single day this year. AEI/ISW analysts count four task groups from the Eastern, Northern and Southern Theatre Commands between Taiwan and Guam. These include the Liaoning group, and the Fujian left Sanya on 2 Nov. Daily counts have dropped back since (4 aircraft, 6 vessels in the 24 hours to 6am on 8 Nov).

This drill practises keeping outside navies out of the area, which is the job the US alliance and AUKUS force posture would face in a crisis. It also comes ahead of APEC in Shenzhen (18–19 Nov), where Albanese may go on to Beijing (SCMP, unconfirmed). A visit would test how Canberra keeps stabilisation with China going while this is underway.

Iran says two tankers caught fire after hitting mines on an "unauthorised route." Explosions were heard on Qeshm Island and at Jask, days after US strikes. CENTCOM disabled a St Kitts-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman. Trump called Friday's strikes on Iranian air defences "minor" and is weighing a larger wave now that the midterms are over. The IRGC lifted its self-imposed 2,000 km ballistic missile range cap. Iran is reviewing Qatari proposals on its nuclear program.

Australia imports most of its liquid fuel, so a long closure hits the economy directly. The RBA's 25-point hike to 4.85% cited war-driven energy costs. The ADF has given defensive support to Gulf states since March, so any escalation after the midterms raises the question of how far that commitment goes.

Trump met Kirill Dmitriev at the White House and said a deal may be close, but gave no details and didn't meet the Ukrainian delegation. Witkoff says working-level talks between Russia, the US and Ukraine will cover post-war security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian issues. A Kremlin aide says sanctions relief for Russia's sovereign wealth fund is being discussed. The EU's Kallas rejects any deal made without Europe.

Australia has sanctions on Russia and has sent Bushmasters to Ukraine. A deal that rewards taking territory by force and lifts sanctions sets a precedent that would be read closely in the Indo-Pacific. Australia would also have to decide whether to keep its own sanctions if Washington drops its.

KCNA reported cluster-bomb warhead tests (1 Nov), a strategic cruise missile with a dispersal warhead (2 Nov), and a new air-defence missile plus a cruise missile strike drill (4 Nov). NK News says the drill photos were heavily doctored. Talks with Washington remain in doubt.

The ADF regularly sends aircraft and ships to monitor UN sanctions on North Korea. Australia is also strengthening ties with Japan and South Korea. Cluster and dispersal warheads point to battlefield use against airfields, which also matters for how Australia thinks about protecting its own bases.

• Canberra and Honiara have an in-principle treaty, reportedly with A$980m in extra funding. Solomon Islands keeps its security pact with China, and PM Wale faces a no-confidence motion.
• The ABC says a Chinese military-grade explosive found in a container in PNG is a real weapon. Chinese officials had called it a wine bottle.
• Quad foreign ministers (31 Oct, Atlanta) raised concerns about economic coercion and export restrictions, and announced critical minerals work and port cooperation in Fiji. A leaders' summit is planned for Manila this month.
• The ADF sent a C-130, a Citation and 20 personnel to help fight the East Kalimantan fires.

Pacific security partnerships are where Australia competes most directly with China for influence, and where Canberra has the most to lose if partners hedge.